Terms of reference Climatology Advisor for the Saadaal Early Warning System (SEWS)

• Location: Remote / Somalia

• Engagement Type: consultant

• Duration: Initial 6-month contract, with an expected level of effort of approximately 10 working days in the first month (July 2025), followed by 4 working days per month for the remaining five months

1. Background

Shaqodoon Organization is a non-profit dedicated to advancing economic empowerment and community development across Somalia. Among our key initiatives is the Saadaal Early Warning System (SEWS), which delivers timely and actionable climate-related alerts to support preparedness and response efforts.

The Saadaal system integrates data from multiple reputable third-party sources including FSNAU, SWALIM, and Open-Meteo among other as well as South-west State-owned water sensors and automated weather stations. Drawing on this data, SEWS generates weekly and monthly AI-powered reports, which are disseminated to government authorities and other key stakeholders to inform decision-making and action

To maintain the accuracy, reliability, and impact of SEWS, we seek to engage a senior climatology expert to provide ongoing technical advisory services on a retainer basis.

2. Objective

The primary objective of this consultancy is to provide continuous, expert climatology oversight for the Saadal Early Warning System.

• Validate and enhance the system’s data pipelines, including assessing the quality and suitability of information sources.

• Define, review, and refine climate alert thresholds to ensure they are context- appropriate and actionable.

• Deliver training and technical support to designated reporting staff within the Ministry.

• Conduct periodic assessments of the AI-generated climate reports and recommend necessary calibrations to maintain their accuracy, reliability, and relevance to the needs of the Southwest State of Somalia

• Collaborate with Shaqodoon’s software developers to go through the system to optimize AI-driven report generation through strategic prompt engineering, ensuring climate data outputs are scientifically accurate and operationally relevant

3. Scope of Advisory Services

The Climatology Advisor will provide expert technical support to strengthen and maintain the accuracy and relevance of the Saadaal Early Warning System (SEWS). The advisor is expected to dedicate approximately 10 working days during the initial month (July) to support a comprehensive review and enhancement of the system, followed by 4 working days per month for the subsequent five months to provide ongoing advisory services and periodic updates. The scope of services includes the following:

3.1. Ongoing System Validation and Calibration

• Data Pipeline Verification: On a monthly basis, review and verify the functionality of the data pipelines from weather stations and water level sensors, ensuring error-free ingestion of data into SEWS.

• AI Report Quality Advisory: Regularly review the AI-generated climate reports against observed data and provide actionable recommendations to improve their accuracy and relevance. Advise the AI development team on configuration, methodology, prompt engineering, data inputs, and model parameters to enhance report quality.

• Source Validation: Assess the reliability and appropriateness of climate data sources currently in use (e.g., rainfall, drought index, river flooding) and recommend improvements as needed.

3.2. System Enhancement and Strategic Advisory

• Holistic System Assessment: Periodically evaluate SEWS performance against the four key early warning system pillars: (1) Risk Knowledge, (2) Monitoring & Warning, (3) Dissemination & Communication, and (4) Response Capability. Provide strategic recommendations to address gaps and strengthen overall system effectiveness.

• Threshold Definition and Review: Define and periodically refine scientifically sound thresholds for climate indicators that trigger alerts, adjusting for seasonal or contextual changes.

• Predictive Warning Enhancements: Recommend improvements to prediction models and alert logic to increase precision and reduce false alarms.

• Data Gap Analysis & Diversification: Identify gaps in the current dataset (e.g., incomplete or low-resolution data) and propose solutions, including integration of additional datasets (e.g., satellite data, soil moisture, wind patterns) to enhance monitoring capabilities.

• Indicator Expansion: Suggest inclusion of new climate indicators (e.g., extreme temperatures, seasonal variability) to broaden the scope of SEWS.

• Alternative Predictive Modeling: Explore and recommend alternative or complementary climate forecasting approaches (e.g., statistical models, machine learning techniques) to validate and strengthen the AI-driven warnings.

3.3. Collaborative Technical Support

• Development Team Support: Collaborate with software developers to troubleshoot climate data integration challenges and ensure proper data preprocessing for SEWS.

• Partnership Engagement: Provide expert guidance to facilitate partnerships with local climate authorities (e.g., SWALIM) to secure access to robust and reliable datasets.

• Ad-hoc Advisory: Be available on a limited basis each month to respond to technical inquiries from Shaqodoon and development teams.

4. Monthly Deliverables

By the 5th working day of each month, the consultant will submit a Monthly Advisory Report summarizing progress and findings, including:

• A validation summary of the previous month’s AI-generated climate reports, with specific recommendations for calibration and improvement of AI models and agents.

• Verification of the integrity and performance of the data pipeline.

• Recommendations for any adjustments to alert thresholds, predictive logic, or system configuration.

• A concise overview of any analysis conducted on data gaps, proposed new indicators, alternative forecasting approaches, or overall system assessment.

5. How to apply

Qualified and interested consultants are invited to submit their application for this assignment. Applicants should include the following:

• An updated Curriculum Vitae (CV) highlighting relevant expertise in climatology, early warning systems, climate data validation, and AI-driven forecasting.

• A financial proposal indicating the daily consultancy fee in USD, inclusive of all applicable taxes and expenses.

Applications should be submitted electronically to jobs@shaqodoon.org no later than 15th of July 2025.